24 Dec 2008

Grains and the Leaner Rat

** This post is in continuation to the Rut Race **

So, what do you do with the Rut Race? Well firstly you don’t lose hope, secondly you invest for the upturn. And what do you invest in? You look out for stuff that is not fundamentally impaired and strengthen it. In today’s world I see two things that are not fundamentally impaired – your capabilities and commodities. Let’s look at each of these and figure this out better.

No matter what happens in the sector, nobody can take away your skills and capabilities. This is true for both companies and individuals. Changing times will require you to strengthen those skill sets and develop new ones which will be in demand in the upturn. Go ahead, re-equip and re-tool yourselves, do those extra trainings, certifications, study and practice your skill well, even if it’s on internal focused assignments. Stay productive and deliver more value to your organization and to your customer. Transform yourselves for the future, become leaner, faster, cheaper and better for your customers and you will see that when your customer finally starts spending again, the leaner rat will reach the grain first.

Which brings us to the commodities angle. All macro variables point to potentially higher inflation worldwide in the foreseeable future. Demand for commodities (food grains, agri produce, metals etc) will only increase while supply will likely not match it in the near term. Keeping in mind that inflation causes price rise (and not the other way round), commodity producers, folks who invest in commodity producing companies’ equity and who trade in commodities directly will likely obtain good returns on their investments. As an investor, take some exposure in commodity funds and FOFs, start small, keep buying on dips and stay focused on the buy and hold strategy for the long term.

Share with me your perspective on how we could emerge stronger for the upturn.

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